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Instructor/Advisor

Brigid Killian

Keywords

sports analytics, multivariable statistics, baseball

Abstract

This project is an analysis of 210 walk-off events from the 2024 MLB season. A walk-off is a clutch plate appearance that results in a game-winning play by the home team in the bottom of the final inning. As the presence of analytics continues to grow throughout Major League Baseball, teams and organizations are always looking for new ways to use these statistics to give them a competitive edge. One such application is evaluating head-to-head matchups against opposing teams and pitchers to inform lineup decisions. When creating starting lineups, managers consider factors like how well their offense performs against pitchers similar to the opposing starting pitcher or how batters fare in the given ballpark. If a certain player has particularly outstanding success in one of these areas, the manager is more likely to include him in the lineup for the day. This project uses statistical analysis and hypothesis testing to explore the question: To what extent do offensive matchups influence success in clutch situations? Specifically, it investigates whether many of these walk-off events were the result of a favorable matchup, or if there is no true way to predict who will come up clutch. The results suggest that walk-offs are often not the result of a good or great matchup, defying the predictable odds.

Statistical Analysis of Matchup Advantages in Clutch MLB Situations

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